A Career Ruined, A Career Beginning

I remember the sad figure of Colin Powell. The war in Iraq had ended, the American military had won in convincing, powerful fashion. But, the American government was losing the peace. It wasn't a slow process, it happened almost overnight. It wasn't a planned failure, it was simply a failure to plan. Nobody had ever given much thought to what to do with a country after "liberation." It was almost clockwork the way it spiraled into chaos, hate, and resistance. And you could watch Powell accept his part in the painful opera playing out on the world stage, shrinking in stature and resolve. 

Like a good soldier he had stood, with conviction, in front of the United Nations and declared Iraq had developed, stockpiled and was ready to distribute dangerous amounts of the notorious Weapons of Mass Destruction. Like a good soldier he never winced, or cried out loud when he realized he had been fed a pile of elaborate deception.

And like a good soldier he watched without complaint as the situation deteriorated until the contempt and loathing for America had become a palpable entity in Iraq. He knew, better than most, we had taken a country and turned it into a laboratory to nurture, train and enthuse terrorists. and he knew he had a hand in its creation. He watched without public complaint as his career was destroyed by the ambitions of those above him.

Now, I watch Sean Spicer. Watch as he speaks with strength about America defending its interest in the South China Sea. American interests seem to be some islands that China actually built in the sea. Knowing full well this will inflame virulent opposition in China. Knowing China is our largest trading partner, and the world's second largest economy. When pressed for details I hear him say, "I think, as we develop further, we’ll have more information on it." Yes, Mr. Spicer that has always worked so well. Maybe we can impose a naval blockade from over 8,000 miles away. 

Then, we hear Sean Spicer talk about how President Trump would be willing to work with Russia in bombing ISIS. Despite the fact the 2014 National Defense Authorization Act forbids most contact with the Russian military “until Russia has ceased its occupation of Ukrainian territory and its aggressive activities that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." What about American interests there, Mr. Spicer?

And what if we do work out a deal with the Russians to bomb ISIS. The lessons of Afghanistan, our war, and the Soviet Union's, the painful lessons of Iraq, the never ending lessons of Israel in Palestine all serve to prove that bombing extremists accomplish nothing of lasting value. The amount of dead terrorists means nothing, changes nothing. We spend a lot of money on bombs, lose a few planes, kill some innocent civilians in the process, unavoidable when bombing an enemy entrenched in a civilian population, (and also serves as a fine recruiting tool for the terrorists), and we still have ISIS, or whatever they call themselves next.

I wonder how much it takes to get a man to sell out, with Colin Powell it is easy to think he really believed what he said, he was willing to gamble his long, glorious career. But, what about Sean Spicer? What is gambling? I'm afraid the gamble is huge, and no matter who wins America will pay the fee, just like we did for the people who sent Powell into an early and shameful retirement.

History Repeats Itself, Unfortunately.

President Trump’s disdain for the intelligence community is troubling. These are the people tasked with the difficult task of finding, analyzing, and presenting to the cabinet all of the information that will help the president keep the country safe. He challenged them openly on Russian hacking, fearing it somehow questioned his victory. He knew better, he knew Putin would never stoop to such undignified levels.

Yes, it is troubling. But, it is not without precedent. Remember back to the days of the Bush administration. He was, he claimed, certain Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Despite the fact that all intelligence estimates almost insisted there were none.  And despite all evidence to the contrary Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld insisted there were deep, strong ties between Iraq and Al Qaida.

“You missed 9/11, what else did you miss?” Rumsfeld asked, almost demanding some proof of something awful, some grounds for invasion.  This, despite strong evidence that intelligence had been signaling something being planned by extremists.

So, they decided they knew better, Iraq was guilty as hell, of something. They had their “evidence” and a a star witness, all they needed was something to charge them with.  

And they sent a force that was much smaller than the contingent requested by the Armed Forces into Iraq, because they knew better. “Way too pessimistic.” Rumsfeld claimed about the Pentagon’s assessment of the requirements to occupy and control the country.  Once they found the proof they would have world flocking to the aid of the American forces. They just knew.

Trump knows too. He knows Putin is not a bad guy. He knows the Chinese can be forced into accepting “reality according to Trump.” He knows the Mexicans are so wealthy they are willing to pay for a wall.

It is always nice to be able to trust someone so bright with the keys to the kingdom. Last time it worked so well. We can save a lot of money on intelligence gathering and analysis. Why bother, he knows.

How Can The Threat Be Ended?

Russia has made some marginal gains, at a huge expense in Syria. With the might of Russian bombs the forces of Assad have made inroads into areas around Allepo, but nothing that would offer much hope for the regime. And Putin has been quoted as saying "we are far from using everything we are capable of."

American airstrikes in Iran and Syria continue to kill suspected terrorists. And they have, it seems, no plan to slow the sorties. "If you are part of ISIL we will kill you." that is their mission statement right now.

Millions of dollars worth of bombs are being dropped. Buildings and people are exploding at an alarming rate. Death has come to the Middle East, and he is flying a billion dollar, multi purpose fighter/bomber.

But, repeated estimates of "enemy combatants" hover around 30,000 insurgent fighters. Despite the
fact that American estimates are between 23,000 and 25,000 ISIL members killed. Russian and Syrian estimates of casualties are similar. And that number is supposedly adjusted to exclude the civilian casualties.

Even if one assumes that the estimates of combatants killed are overestimated ISIS is replenishing ranks with alarming efficiency. And sooner or later enough lives will be lost and money spent that the super powers will take their expensive equipment and go home. What then?

One thing neither of the great powers is talking about, and it seems like it should have been the first step, is "what should we do to keep a person who is neutral from joining the ranks of ISIL?"  They didn't ask before entering the fray, and they haven't asked since.

How can this river of willing soldiers be stopped? What steps need to be taken to end the enlistment?

It is a stretch to say America or Russia can understand the workings of the Middle Eastern mind, but if they ever want to leave with dignity and hope of security they had better find out.